Forecast and "the Bubble"

BC is in the home stretch of the season, and despite their 6-1 conference record, they are in a precarious position. I have said before that I think they need to go 11-5 in the ACC to be assured an NCAA tourney bid. 10-6 might do it, especially coupled with a win or two in the ACC tourney, but I would be squirming in my seat the whole way. The unsightly early season losses to Duquesne and Vermont, the Dope Dismissals, and a 5-6 fade would put them on the wrong side of the Bubble in my view.

The remaining 9 ACC games consist of exactly 1 game they should win (Miami away), 3 games they should lose (Duke away, UNC home, VTech away), and 5 "swing" games (VTech home, FSU away, Duke home, Clemson home, GTech away). So getting to 11 conference wins will be no easy task, as they will probably have to hold serve against the Hurricanes and take 4 of the 5 "swing" games, unless they pull a huge upset at Durham or Blacksburg, or home against the incredibly talented Tar Heels looking for payback.

The most likely candidates I see for W's among the "swing" opponents are VTech, FSU, GTech and Duke. VTech is a completely different team on the road (just ask FSU and Miami), and BC has already proven they can hang with FSU. GTech will be tough, they have a couple of fantastic freshmen. But I'm not sold on the Ramblin Wreck, they've been mighty inconsistent this year. Same goes for Duke; I think Greg Paulus totally sucks (perhaps the most overhyped player in the country), and McRoberts is just a big tease. Clemson scares me though, I just don't see the Eagles knocking them off, even at home.

If the season were to end today, BC (RPI 34) would probably be in as a No. 6 or 7 seed (see Bracketology), but according to this nice article from ESPN's Andy Katz, the season doesn't end today for the Eagles, it's just beginning. I couldn't agree more.